Chicago @ New Orleans props

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Bears are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The projections expect Cole Kmet to notch 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs. Cole Kmet's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 5.1 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last season. Cole Kmet's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 74.3% to 84.3%.

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Bears are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of an emphasis on passing than their standard approach. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's game, Roschon Johnson is predicted by the projection model to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.4 targets. Roschon Johnson ranks in the 79th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 13.8 figure this year. With an impressive 2.3 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) this year, Roschon Johnson places as one of the top RB receiving threats in football.

The Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 65.5 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. The Bears defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (39.0 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Alvin Kamara is expected by the projection model to slot into the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 7.3 targets. Alvin Kamara's 7.8 adjusted catches per game this year shows a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 3.8 rate.

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Saints, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 128.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week. As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Saints profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year. Chris Olave's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 60.1% to 55.6%.

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year. This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered a meager 59.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the league. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's collection of LBs has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.