Indianapolis @ Carolina props

The model projects the Carolina Panthers offensive approach to lean 6.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have 133.0 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The Panthers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 63.4 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Adam Thielen's receiving talent has improved this season, totaling 8.2 adjusted catches compared to a mere 4.1 last season.

Hayden Hurst's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 28.8. The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board. Hayden Hurst's 2.0 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a material regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.0 mark. Hayden Hurst's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 79.1% to 59.7%.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Colts are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.7 plays on offense in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week. The 8th-most plays in the league have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.9 per game on average). The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 3.4 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs. The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. With an exceptional 2.5 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Jonathan Taylor ranks as one of the leading RBs in the pass game in the NFL.

The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts offense to lean 1.0% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league. The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.