Dallas @ Philadelphia props

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.51 seconds per snap. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 8th-best in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.51 seconds per snap. CeeDee Lamb's 60.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 67.6. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.7%) to wideouts this year (62.7%).

The Eagles have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer. The predictive model expects D'Andre Swift to accumulate 4.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. D'Andre Swift ranks in the 90th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a whopping 18.9 figure this year. D'Andre Swift rates as one of the top RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script. Right now, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Philadelphia Eagles. Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league. Dallas Goedert's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 80.2% to 73.6%. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The model projects the Cowboys offense to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays. The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. The Eagles defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.1 per game) this year. The projections expect Jake Ferguson to earn 5.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Jake Ferguson's 14.4% Target Rate this season represents a noteable boost in his passing attack usage over last season's 4.5% rate.

The Eagles have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may suffer. The model projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.9 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 95th percentile among wideouts. With a RATE1-RATE2 point increase in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, A.J. Brown has been more heavily used in his team's pass game. A.J. Brown's 7.5 adjusted catches per game this season signifies a substantial boost in his receiving prowess over last season's 5.2 mark.