Buffalo @ Cincinnati props

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may drop. In this contest, Ja'Marr Chase is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 12.7 targets. Ja'Marr Chase has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (33.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.1%). Ja'Marr Chase's receiving talent has gotten better this year, compiling 8.4 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 7.4 last year.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this game, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by the predictive model to find himself in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.6 targets. While Dalton Kincaid has accounted for 13.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much more involved in Buffalo's offense this week at 19.0%. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year. Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the best TE receiving threats this year, averaging a fantastic 4.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.0% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may drop. Irv Smith Jr.'s 68.5% Route% this year indicates a remarkable gain in his pass game usage over last year's 55.6% figure.

The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Joe Mixon's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.4. Joe Mixon's receiving skills have tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.7 adjusted catches vs 4.3 last season. Joe Mixon's 81.5% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a significant diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 86.0% mark.

The projections expect the Bills to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Bengals, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 33.3 per game) this year. The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (75.8%) to running backs this year (75.8%).

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is projected by the model to find himself in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 11.2 targets. Stefon Diggs's 79.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 65.9. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year. Stefon Diggs's receiving performance has been refined this season, averaging 8.1 adjusted receptions vs a mere 6.8 last season.