NYJ 2.5 o42.0
MIN -2.5 u42.0
IND 3.0 o45.5
JAC -3.0 u45.5
MIA -1.0 o35.5
NE 1.0 u35.5
BUF 1.0 o47.0
HOU -1.0 u47.0
CLE 3.0 o43.5
WAS -3.0 u43.5
BAL -2.5 o48.5
CIN 2.5 u48.5
CAR 4.0 o40.5
CHI -4.0 u40.5
ARI 7.5 o49.0
SF -7.5 u49.0
LV 2.5 o35.0
DEN -2.5 u35.0
GB -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
NYG 7.5 o42.5
SEA -7.5 u42.5
DAL 2.5 o43.5
PIT -2.5 u43.5
NO 5.0 o43.0
KC -5.0 u43.0
Final OT Oct 3
TB 30 2.5 o43.5
ATL 36 -2.5 u43.5
Los Angeles 4th AFC West5-12
New York 3rd AFC East7-10
ABC

Los Angeles @ New York props

MetLife Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Garrett Wilson Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

G. Wilson
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.1
Best Odds
Over
+120

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. With a fantastic 5.8 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

Garrett Wilson

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.1
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.1

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. With a fantastic 5.8 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson ranks among the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

Breece Hall Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

B. Hall
running back RB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
-175

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. Breece Hall has been one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Breece Hall

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. Breece Hall has been one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Austin Ekeler Receptions Made Props • L.A. Chargers

A. Ekeler
running back RB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.2
Best Odds
Over
-115

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.5 targets.

Austin Ekeler

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.2
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.2

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the model to slot into the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.5 targets.

Tyler Conklin Receptions Made Props • N.Y. Jets

T. Conklin
tight end TE • N.Y. Jets
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.9
Best Odds
Over
-108

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. Tyler Conklin's 75.4% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a material improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 71.7% figure.

Tyler Conklin

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.9
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.9

The Jets may pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in football. Tyler Conklin's 75.4% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a material improvement in his receiving ability over last year's 71.7% figure.

Keenan Allen Receptions Made Props • L.A. Chargers

K. Allen
wide receiver WR • L.A. Chargers
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Over
-120

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. Keenan Allen has run a route on 97.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to garner 10.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Keenan Allen's 7.5 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a meaningful boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 6.5 rate. With an excellent 74.2% Adjusted Catch% (82nd percentile) this year, Keenan Allen rates among the best possession receivers in the league among WRs.

Keenan Allen

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.7
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.7

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. Keenan Allen has run a route on 97.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The leading projections forecast Keenan Allen to garner 10.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Keenan Allen's 7.5 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a meaningful boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 6.5 rate. With an excellent 74.2% Adjusted Catch% (82nd percentile) this year, Keenan Allen rates among the best possession receivers in the league among WRs.

Gerald Everett Receptions Made Props • L.A. Chargers

G. Everett
tight end TE • L.A. Chargers
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.8
Best Odds
Over
-166

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. In this contest, Gerald Everett is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 77th percentile among tight ends with 4.2 targets. Gerald Everett ranks as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a remarkable 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile. Gerald Everett's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 69.2% to 82.7%.

Gerald Everett

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.8
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.8

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are forecasted by the projection model to run 66.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. In this contest, Gerald Everett is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 77th percentile among tight ends with 4.2 targets. Gerald Everett ranks as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a remarkable 3.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile. Gerald Everett's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 69.2% to 82.7%.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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