Carolina @ Chicago props

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week. The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Hayden Hurst's 22.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 28.8. When talking about pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year. Hayden Hurst's 1.9 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a noteable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.0 figure.

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 47.3% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football. The Bears O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

This game's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 47.3% of their opportunities: the lowest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Panthers defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football. The Bears O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The predictive model expects the Panthers offensive blueprint to lean 6.5% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays. This week's line implies a passing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs. The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Panthers this year (a colossal 63.8 per game on average). The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (39.1 per game) this year. Chuba Hubbard has been used more as a potential target this year (41.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (24.7%).

The model projects Cole Kmet to accrue 5.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With an extraordinary 18.8% Target Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Cole Kmet ranks as one of the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league. Cole Kmet's receiving skills have gotten better this year, averaging 5.2 adjusted receptions compared to a measly 3.0 last year. Cole Kmet's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 74.3% to 84.5%. The Panthers safeties profile as the worst unit in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.