Houston @ Cincinnati props

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Texans, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Schultz to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends. With a high 18.6% Target Rate (91st percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz ranks among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the league. With an outstanding 4.1 adjusted receptions per game (88th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz stands as one of the top TEs in the pass game in the NFL. This year, the deficient Bengals pass defense has yielded a whopping 81.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite this week. The leading projections forecast the Bengals offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.90 seconds per snap. The Houston cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite this week. The leading projections forecast the Bengals offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.90 seconds per snap. With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Joe Mixon has been featured much less in his team's pass attack. Joe Mixon's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a significant decrease in his pass-catching talent over last season's 4.3 rate. The Texans safeties profile as the 10th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may decline. This year, the weak Texans pass defense has been torched for a staggering 80.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context). Right now, the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Houston Texans. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are projected by the model to run just 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (60.4%) vs. wideouts this year (60.4%).

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Texans, who are -5.5-point underdogs. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Cincinnati's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.