New Orleans @ Minnesota props

The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 132.2 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. With an outstanding 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Jordan Addison places among the best WRs in the NFL in the league.

The predictive model expects the Saints as the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Saints to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 64.7 per game on average). Alvin Kamara's 7.1 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a noteworthy growth in his receiving skills over last season's 3.8 figure. This year, the deficient Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been torched for a whopping 88.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the worst rate in the NFL.

The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 132.2 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. Alexander Mattison has been used more as a potential target this season (49.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (22.0%).

The predictive model expects the Saints as the 8th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect the Saints to run the 6th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the New Orleans Saints this year (a staggering 64.7 per game on average). The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. This year, the deficient Minnesota Vikings pass defense has given up a whopping 70.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 7th-highest rate in football.

The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 132.2 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. T.J. Hockenson's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, notching 6.6 adjusted receptions vs a mere 3.5 last season.