Green Bay @ Pittsburgh props

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect Luke Musgrave to accumulate 5.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to TEs. With an exceptional 14.1% Target Share (79th percentile) this year, Luke Musgrave rates among the tight ends with the most usage in football. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board. Luke Musgrave ranks as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 80th percentile.

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. This week, Romeo Doubs is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 77th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 6.8 targets. Romeo Doubs has been a much bigger part of his team's pass game this year (20.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.6%). The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The model projects the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. The leading projections forecast Diontae Johnson to notch 9.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts. With a terrific 5.8 adjusted catches per game (92nd percentile) this year, Diontae Johnson has been among the best wide receivers in the league in the league. Diontae Johnson's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 61.4% to 66.3%.

The model projects the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Connor Heyward's 8.6% Target% this season marks a remarkable progression in his pass attack volume over last season's 2.8% figure. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Green Bay's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league.

The Packers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 94th percentile among RBs with 5.0 targets. The Packers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board. Aaron Jones rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 2.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

The model projects the Steelers to run the 5th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. With an exceptional 54.2% Snap% (81st percentile) this year, Najee Harris rates among the running backs with the biggest workloads in football. This year, the poor Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded a staggering 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league. When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Green Bay's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league.