Atlanta @ Arizona props

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The projections expect Trey McBride to total 7.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends. While Trey McBride has earned 14.5% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Arizona's passing attack in this week's game at 22.5%. Trey McBride grades out as one of the best tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

The model projects the Cardinals offensive strategy to lean 3.9% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays. At the present time, the 5th-least pass-focused team in the league (57.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. James Conner has been used less as a potential target this year (40.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (61.5%). The Cardinals O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board. James Conner's play as a receiver has worsened this year, compiling a mere 1.6 adjusted catches vs 3.5 last year.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Atlanta Falcons have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 62.0 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The model projects Drake London to accumulate 7.6 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs. Drake London has been one of the leading pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Atlanta Falcons have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 62.0 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The projections expect Kyle Pitts to total 5.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends. With an outstanding 3.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts places among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to total 8.8 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Marquise Brown has been more heavily relied on in his team's air attack. With a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game (84th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown rates among the leading WRs in the game in the league.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.6 per game) this year. With a bad 73.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (20th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson has been as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among RBs.