M&T Bank Stadium
The Bengals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.6% of their plays: the highest clip on the slate this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. Ja'Marr Chase has run a route on 97.0% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs. With a terrific 7.5 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Ja'Marr Chase ranks as one of the best pass-catching WRs in football.
The Bengals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.6% of their plays: the highest clip on the slate this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. The leading projections forecast Tanner Hudson to total 3.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs. Tanner Hudson's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this year reflects a noteable improvement in his pass-catching talent over last year's 1.7 figure.
The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may decline. Gus Edwards has been used more as a potential target this year (29.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (9.6%). When talking about pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 7th-best in the league this year. With a fantastic 100.0% Adjusted Catch% (100th percentile) this year, Gus Edwards has been as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs.
The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may decline. The projections expect Zay Flowers to total 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an elite 24.4% Target% (88th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers ranks among the WRs with the most usage in the NFL. With an exceptional 5.1 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers rates as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may decline. Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to notch 6.6 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs. Mark Andrews grades out as one of the leading TE receiving threats this year, averaging an exceptional 4.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile. The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.1%) versus TEs this year (80.1%).
The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play. Joe Mixon's 12.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.4. The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board. Joe Mixon's 2.9 adjusted catches per game this season represents a significant reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.3 figure. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Baltimore's unit has been outstanding this year, ranking as the best in football.
