Chicago @ Detroit props

The 5th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year. In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is expected by the model to place in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.4 targets. With a fantastic 4.4 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the top pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

The 5th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year. The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 10.4 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 8.2 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a significant improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 6.7 rate.

The 5th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a whopping 62.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year. In this week's game, Sam LaPorta is projected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.8 targets. With an exceptional 5.2 adjusted receptions per game (96th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta has been as one of the leading pass-game TEs in the NFL.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are enormous -7.5-point underdogs. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Our trusted projections expect Cole Kmet to total 5.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to TEs. Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, notching 5.1 adjusted receptions vs just 3.0 last year. Cole Kmet's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 74.3% to 82.5%.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are enormous -7.5-point underdogs. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers. The predictive model expects D.J. Moore to total 7.8 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among wide receivers. D.J. Moore's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a significant gain in his receiving skills over last year's 3.7 figure.