Arizona @ Houston props

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer. Trey McBride has been one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an exceptional 3.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 77th percentile. The Texans pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.4%) versus tight ends this year (78.4%).

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% pass rate. James Conner has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (40.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.5%). The Arizona offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. James Conner's 1.3 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a meaningful diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.5 figure.

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer. Marquise Brown has run a route on 94.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wideouts. The projections expect Marquise Brown to total 9.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 132.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a massive 60.6 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The leading projections forecast Nathaniel Dell to garner 7.5 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wideouts. With an extraordinary 21.3% Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Nathaniel Dell ranks as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 132.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a massive 60.6 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The leading projections forecast Dalton Schultz to accumulate 6.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends. Dalton Schultz has been one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a remarkable 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to see 132.0 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a massive 60.6 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The Texans O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. This year, the porous Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 84.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.