Tennessee @ Jacksonville props

At the moment, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (63.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jaguars. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 27.36 seconds per snap. In this contest, Evan Engram is predicted by the model to land in the 95th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.2 targets. Evan Engram's 22.6% Target% this year marks a meaningful growth in his passing attack workload over last year's 17.6% mark. Evan Engram's receiving talent has been refined this year, accumulating 6.1 adjusted receptions vs just 4.3 last year.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.9 per game) this year. This year, the strong Titans defense has allowed a meager 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.9 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to skew 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays. A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Opposing teams have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in football. In this contest, DeAndre Hopkins is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.6 targets. DeAndre Hopkins's 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 94th percentile for wideouts.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to skew 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays. A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Opposing teams have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in football. The projections expect Chigoziem Okonkwo to earn 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs. Chigoziem Okonkwo has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (10.8%).

Our trusted projections expect the Titans offense to skew 2.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays. A passing game script is indicated by the Titans being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Opposing teams have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in football. Derrick Henry's 95.3% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a meaningful growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 84.3% mark.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has gone over 1.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Kyle Philips has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 9 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Calvin Ridley has gone over 3.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.