Las Vegas @ Miami props

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. In this week's game, Tyreek Hill is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.9 targets. With an impressive 32.2% Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL. With a remarkable 7.7 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places among the leading wide receivers in the game in football. The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).

This game's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are massive -14-point underdogs. In this week's game, Davante Adams is predicted by the model to land in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.0 targets. Davante Adams's 83.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 75.0. The Las Vegas offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board. This year, the anemic Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

This game's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are massive -14-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect Michael Mayer to total 3.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among tight ends. The Las Vegas offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has allowed a staggering 81.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

This game's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Raiders, who are massive -14-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs. With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Josh Jacobs has been more prominently utilized in his offense's pass game. The Las Vegas offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board. Josh Jacobs checks in as one of the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging an outstanding 2.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.

With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are a heavy favorite in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan. The model projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Dolphins have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.3 plays per game.