Tampa Bay @ San Francisco props

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by the projection model to run only 60.0 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a meager 63.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the NFL. The 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a heavy -13.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league. Rachaad White's 69.3% Route Participation Rate this season shows a significant improvement in his pass game volume over last season's 32.7% figure. Rachaad White profiles as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Buccaneers being a heavy -13.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league. In this week's game, Mike Evans is projected by the projections to rank in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.1 targets. With a remarkable 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, Mike Evans has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

An extreme running game script is implied by the 49ers being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game. Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 122.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (just 53.4 per game on average). The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. In this week's game, Brandon Aiyuk is forecasted by the model to place in the 83rd percentile among WRs with 7.3 targets. With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more prominently used in his team's passing offense. With a stellar 4.9 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) this year, Brandon Aiyuk rates as one of the best WRs in the league in the league. Brandon Aiyuk's 71.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a noteable gain in his receiving ability over last year's 68.9% mark.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. In this week's game, George Kittle is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.0 targets. George Kittle's 47.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 42.2. With an excellent 3.9 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been lousy this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the NFL.