New York @ Buffalo props

A running game script is suggested by the Bills being a 6.5-point favorite in this game. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average). Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 32.9 per game) this year. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's collection of LBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Jets to run the 3rd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the New York Jets this year (a measly 56.0 per game on average). With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Breece Hall has been incorporated much less in his offense's passing game. The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack stats across the board. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 10th-best in football.

The Jets may lean on the pass less this week (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson. The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Jets to pass on 61.4% of their downs: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. With a remarkable 3.7 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin rates as one of the top pass-game TEs in the NFL.

The Jets may lean on the pass less this week (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Zach Wilson. The New York Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context). At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Garrett Wilson's receiving talent has gotten a boost this season, totaling 6.2 adjusted catches vs a mere 5.0 last season. The Bills pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.5%) versus wideouts this year (76.5%).

The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate. The projections expect Dalton Kincaid to accrue 7.5 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs. Our trusted projections expect Dalton Kincaid to be a more important option in his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played). As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. With an outstanding 5.0 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the leading pass-catching TEs in football.

The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate. In this week's contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to slot into the 94th percentile among wide receivers with 10.0 targets. Stefon Diggs's 73.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 65.9. As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. With an impressive 7.3 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the leading wide receivers in the league in the league.

Allen Lazard has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Xavier Gipson has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

Gabe Davis has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Khalil Shakir has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Dalvin Cook has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Quintin Morris has gone over 0.5 in 1 of his last 10 games.