Minnesota @ Denver props

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Jordan Addison is projected by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile among wideouts with 7.7 targets. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year. Jordan Addison rates as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a stellar 4.5 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects T.J. Hockenson to earn 10.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends. T.J. Hockenson's 54.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 43.5. T.J. Hockenson's 7.1 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a material progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 3.5 mark.

Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in football. Ty Chandler has run a route on 10.7% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 21st percentile among RBs. Ty Chandler grades out as one of the bottom pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a mere 0.8 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 16th percentile among running backs.

The projections expect the Broncos offensive approach to lean 2.0% more towards running than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to pass on 52.5% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to run only 63.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week. The Denver Broncos have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.7 plays per game. Javonte Williams has been a less important option in his offense's passing offense this year (11.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (16.8%).

Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.2% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs. In this week's game, Courtland Sutton is anticipated by the model to finish in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets. With an outstanding 4.6 adjusted catches per game (83rd percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton has been as one of the top pass-catching WRs in the league. Courtland Sutton's 75.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year indicates an impressive progression in his receiving skills over last year's 59.4% mark. This year, the poor Vikings pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year. The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Adam Trautman's 69.4% Route Participation Rate this year represents a substantial growth in his passing game utilization over last year's 28.5% mark.