Philadelphia @ Kansas City props

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Philadelphia's collection of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) to WRs this year (62.9%).

In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by our trusted projection set to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.4 targets. When talking about pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 5th-best in football this year. D'Andre Swift profiles as one of the leading RB receiving threats this year, averaging an excellent 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 93rd percentile. D'Andre Swift's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 75.9% to 88.2%. This year, the poor Chiefs pass defense has conceded a monstrous 87.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

The projections expect the Eagles as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Eagles offense to be the slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.83 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the league. The Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (59.1%) vs. WRs this year (59.1%). The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

The model projects Jack Stoll to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense in this game (7.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (1.1% in games he has played). When talking about pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 5th-best in football this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.3 per game) this year. The model projects Isiah Pacheco to notch 3.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs. Isiah Pacheco's 8.9% Target Share this season shows a meaningful gain in his passing offense utilization over last season's 2.2% figure.