Chicago @ Minnesota props

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup QB Joshua Dobbs. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing offenses have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. T.J. Hockenson's 6.8 adjusted catches per game this season illustrates a material boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 3.5 mark.

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup QB Joshua Dobbs. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing offenses have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Jordan Addison rates as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 4.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Khalil Herbert's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 5.5. Khalil Herbert's pass-catching performance improved this season, accumulating 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.7 last season. The Vikings pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (92.3%) to running backs this year (92.3%).

The Vikings may throw the ball less in this game (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to start backup QB Joshua Dobbs. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing offenses have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in football. Alexander Mattison's 49.1% Route% this season marks a material boost in his passing offense volume over last season's 22.0% figure.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The leading projections forecast Cole Kmet to garner 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Cole Kmet's 4.9 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a remarkable gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 3.0 rate. Cole Kmet's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 74.3% to 83.3%.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. With an elite 95.9% Route Participation% (97th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore has been among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league. D.J. Moore's pass-catching performance been refined this season, notching 5.3 adjusted catches vs just 3.7 last season. The Vikings pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.4%) versus WRs this year (69.4%).