Carolina @ Tampa Bay props

Our trusted projections expect Mike Evans to notch 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among WRs. Mike Evans's 68.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 55.0. Mike Evans checks in as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging a terrific 4.8 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 85th percentile. The Panthers cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 4.6% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized). A running game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a 3.5-point favorite this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Panthers, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.2 per game) this year. When it comes to linebackers pass-rushing, Carolina's group of LBs has been terrific this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the NFL.

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.4 plays per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year. Adam Thielen's receiving skills have been refined this year, averaging 7.0 adjusted receptions vs a measly 4.1 last year.

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.4 plays per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year. Chuba Hubbard's 2.6 adjusted receptions per game this year represents an impressive gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 1.2 rate.

Rachaad White's 69.4% Route Participation Rate this season represents a remarkable growth in his passing attack workload over last season's 32.7% mark. The model projects Rachaad White to accrue 4.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs. With an exceptional 3.9 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Rachaad White stands as one of the leading pass-game RBs in football. Rachaad White's 93.7% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a substantial gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 89.5% rate.

The Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.4 plays per game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (38.4 per game) this year. Stephen Sullivan is positioned as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, catching an exceptional 88.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 86th percentile.