Miami @ Washington props

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate. The Washington Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.1 per game) this year. The Washington Commanders linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The model projects the Commanders offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.34 seconds per snap. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.7%) versus RBs this year (78.7%). As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate. The Washington Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.1 per game) this year. In this game, Tyreek Hill is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 11.4 targets. With a remarkable 33.0% Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL. Tyreek Hill's 8.0 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a significant progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 7.0 figure.

Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate. The Washington Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (38.1 per game) this year. Durham Smythe's 73.0% Route Participation Rate this season shows a significant gain in his passing offense volume over last season's 27.1% figure. Durham Smythe's play as a receiver has gotten a boost this year, totaling 2.3 adjusted receptions vs just 1.2 last year. Durham Smythe grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing an excellent 80.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.

The model projects the Commanders offensive scheme to tilt 12.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays. An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8.5-point underdog in this week's game. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may drop-off. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.7%) versus wide receivers this year (71.7%).

The model projects the Commanders offensive scheme to tilt 12.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays. An extreme passing game script is implied by the Commanders being a heavy -8.5-point underdog in this week's game. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week. Logan Thomas's receiving performance has been refined this season, averaging 4.0 adjusted receptions vs a measly 2.9 last season. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79%) to TEs this year (79.0%).