Kansas City @ Green Bay props

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect Isiah Pacheco to total 4.7 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs. Isiah Pacheco has been a more important option in his offense's pass game this season (8.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (2.2%). Isiah Pacheco's 2.7 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a meaningful growth in his receiving ability over last year's 0.8 rate. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been lousy this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in football.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan. The leading projections forecast the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. With a high 43.9% Route Participation% (77th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 71.3% to 81.4%. This year, the porous Chiefs pass defense has surrendered a massive 88.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.

A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 5.5-point favorite in this game. The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.29 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL. As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Green Bay's CB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 9th-best in football.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week. In this contest, Travis Kelce is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 100th percentile among tight ends with 9.1 targets. With a high 24.7% Target% (99th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce rates among the tight ends with the most usage in football. Travis Kelce is positioned as one of the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 7.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 100th percentile. Travis Kelce's 82.5% Adjusted Catch% this year shows an impressive progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 74.6% rate.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan. The leading projections forecast the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs safeties project as the 10th-worst group of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan. The leading projections forecast the Packers to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast Tucker Kraft to earn 4.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs. Our trusted projections expect Tucker Kraft to be a more important option in his team's passing attack in this game (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (2.3% in games he has played). With a terrific 89.4% Adjusted Catch% (88th percentile) this year, Tucker Kraft rates as one of the best possession receivers in football among tight ends.