Tampa Bay @ Atlanta props

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.2 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.6 per game) this year. With an impressive 3.4 adjusted receptions per game (75th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks among the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.2 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.6 per game) this year. Drake London profiles as one of the best WRs in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 4.2 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a massive 61.2 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off. The Buccaneers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.6 per game) this year. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 67.8% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Cade Otton's 87.3% Route% this year reflects a meaningful growth in his pass attack utilization over last year's 63.9% rate. In this week's contest, Cade Otton is expected by the model to land in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.7 targets. Cade Otton rates as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 56.2 plays per game. The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (61.6%) versus wide receivers this year (61.6%).

The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Rachaad White has run more routes this year (69.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (32.7%). In this week's contest, Rachaad White is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.0 targets. Rachaad White comes in as one of the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.