Los Angeles @ Baltimore props

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 48.0% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week. Isaiah Likely's receiving talent has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 1.6 adjusted catches vs 2.6 last year.

The Rams are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week. The model projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.07 seconds per play. Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in the league. With an outstanding 6.3 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Puka Nacua places among the top wide receivers in the game in the league.

Kyren Williams's 64.8% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a substantial decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 80.0% mark. As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's unit has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 48.0% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week. The Rams pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (55.5%) versus wide receivers this year (55.5%).