Houston @ New York props

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan. The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.1 per game) this year. This year, the daunting Jets defense has given up a meager 65.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-best rate in the league. The New York Jets linebackers project as the best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan. The projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 4th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.1 per game) this year. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, New York's unit has been very good this year, profiling as the best in the league.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. Breece Hall's 3.7 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a substantial gain in his receiving prowess over last year's 2.7 figure. This year, the poor Houston Texans pass defense has given up a colossal 85.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-worst rate in football.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. At a mere 27.04 seconds per play, the New York Jets offense rates as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. With an excellent 3.6 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin stands among the top pass-catching TEs in the league.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson. The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized). The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script. At a mere 27.04 seconds per play, the New York Jets offense rates as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (in a neutral context) this year. Garrett Wilson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (97.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (86.4%).