Denver @ Los Angeles props

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is predicted by the predictive model to land in the 100th percentile among wideouts with 11.7 targets. Keenan Allen's 73.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 63.2. Keenan Allen's receiving talent has been refined this season, notching 8.3 adjusted receptions vs just 6.5 last season.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. Adam Trautman's 68.5% Route% this year marks a significant improvement in his pass attack volume over last year's 28.5% figure. As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Broncos profiles as the 6th-best in football this year. This year, the feeble Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded a staggering 78.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

The predictive model expects the Broncos offensive blueprint to tilt 2.0% more towards the ground game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.4% pass rate. The model projects the Broncos to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game. The Chargers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Broncos, who are -3-point underdogs. Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Chargers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. The predictive model expects Javonte Williams to notch 4.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs. As it relates to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Broncos profiles as the 6th-best in football this year. Javonte Williams is positioned as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 2.6 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Gerald Everett to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile among tight ends. Gerald Everett's possession skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 69.2% to 81.6%. This year, the feeble Broncos pass defense has given up a massive 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 4th-biggest rate in football.

The projections expect the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The predictive model expects Austin Ekeler to garner 5.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs. When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Denver's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.