DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.5 o46.5
MIA -7.5 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
DEN -6.0 o40.5
LV 6.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o51.0
LAC 3.0 u51.0
Final Nov 21
PIT 19 -3.5 o37.0
CLE 24 3.5 u37.0
Atlanta 3rd NFC South7-10
Carolina 4th NFC South2-15
FOX

Atlanta @ Carolina props

Bank of America Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Bijan Robinson Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

B. Robinson
running back RB • Atlanta
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.1
Best Odds
Over
-115

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 68.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets. The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Bijan Robinson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.1
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.1

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Bijan Robinson has run a route on 68.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. In this week's contest, Bijan Robinson is projected by our trusted projection set to land in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.8 targets. The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Chuba Hubbard Receptions Made Props • Carolina

C. Hubbard
running back RB • Carolina
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Over
-165
Prop
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.2
Best Odds
Over
-165
Projection Rating

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 63.5 per game on average). Chuba Hubbard's 42.4% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a remarkable growth in his passing offense workload over last season's 24.7% rate. In this week's contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by the projections to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.3 targets. Chuba Hubbard's pass-catching performance improved this season, compiling 2.3 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.2 last season.

Chuba Hubbard

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.2
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.2

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.7 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 2nd-most plays in the league have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 63.5 per game on average). Chuba Hubbard's 42.4% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a remarkable growth in his passing offense workload over last season's 24.7% rate. In this week's contest, Chuba Hubbard is forecasted by the projections to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.3 targets. Chuba Hubbard's pass-catching performance improved this season, compiling 2.3 adjusted catches vs a measly 1.2 last season.

Adam Thielen Receptions Made Props • Carolina

A. Thielen
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.4
Best Odds
Under
-128

The model projects the Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year. This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a measly 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the league.

Adam Thielen

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.4
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.4

The model projects the Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. In regards to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year. This year, the imposing Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a measly 60.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-best rate in the league.

Kyle Pitts Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

K. Pitts
tight end TE • Atlanta
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3
Best Odds
Over
-160

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. The model projects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends. The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board. With a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game in football.

Kyle Pitts

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. The model projects Kyle Pitts to earn 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among tight ends. The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board. With a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Kyle Pitts ranks as one of the best TEs in the pass game in football.

Drake London Receptions Made Props • Atlanta

D. London
wide receiver WR • Atlanta
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
-130

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. In this week's game, Drake London is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 79th percentile among WRs with 7.0 targets. With a high 24.2% Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Drake London places as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football. With a terrific 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Drake London rates among the best wide receivers in the league in the league.

Drake London

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

The model projects the Falcons to call the most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. In this week's game, Drake London is anticipated by the model to find himself in the 79th percentile among WRs with 7.0 targets. With a high 24.2% Target Share (88th percentile) this year, Drake London places as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in football. With a terrific 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Drake London rates among the best wide receivers in the league in the league.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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