Chicago @ Cleveland props

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bears offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 29.9 per game) this year. This year, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has conceded a puny 54.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the smallest rate in the league. The Browns linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The model projects the Browns as the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume. David Njoku's 66.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 77.2% rate.

The model projects the Browns as the 9th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased run volume. Amari Cooper's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 64.9% to 57.3%.

The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 48.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bears offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 29.9 per game) this year. With a feeble 71.7% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, D'Onta Foreman has been as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to RBs. The Browns linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

The projections expect Cole Kmet to accrue 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs. Cole Kmet's 5.1 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a significant growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 3.0 figure. Cole Kmet's 84.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material boost in his receiving proficiency over last season's 74.3% rate.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are anticipated by the projection model to run 66.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. Our trusted projections expect Jerome Ford to garner 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. Jerome Ford rates in the 84th percentile for RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 17.3 figure this year.