Tampa Bay @ Green Bay props

A running game script is implied by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 127.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week. The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 56.4 plays per game. Aaron Jones has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (37.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (51.3%). Aaron Jones's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 82.4% to 71.2%.

A running game script is implied by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 127.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week. The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 56.4 plays per game. This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a mere 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-best rate in the NFL. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. Rachaad White's 71.4% Route Participation% this season shows a remarkable growth in his passing offense utilization over last season's 32.7% figure. The predictive model expects Rachaad White to accumulate 4.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a stellar 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) this year, Rachaad White stands as one of the best pass-game RBs in the league. With an excellent 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate (95th percentile) this year, Rachaad White rates as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL among RBs.

A running game script is implied by the Packers being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 127.3 total plays called: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week. The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 56.4 plays per game.

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. Cade Otton's 87.5% Route% this season illustrates a noteworthy gain in his air attack utilization over last season's 63.9% mark. The predictive model expects Cade Otton to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among tight ends. With an exceptional 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Cade Otton stands as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. Cade Otton's 72.3% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a meaningful gain in his receiving prowess over last season's 66.2% mark.

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. The projections expect Mike Evans to earn 8.4 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile among wideouts. Mike Evans's 70.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 55.0. With a stellar 4.6 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Mike Evans has been among the leading pass-catching WRs in football. The Packers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (69.4%) versus wideouts this year (69.4%).