Houston @ Tennessee props

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -3-point underdog in this game. The Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per play. Noah Brown has run a route on 78.3% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts. This year, the anemic Titans pass defense has yielded a colossal 72.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Texans to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week. Dalton Schultz's 34.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 39.7.

A passing game script is implied by the Texans being a -3-point underdog in this game. The Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest tempo in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per play. The Tennessee Titans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

In this week's game, Chigoziem Okonkwo is expected by the projections to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets. Chigoziem Okonkwo's 16.2% Target Rate this season represents a substantial gain in his pass game usage over last season's 10.8% rate. This year, the shaky Houston Texans pass defense has allowed a whopping 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 9th-biggest rate in the league. The Texans safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Derrick Henry's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 84.3% to 92.0%. This year, the weak Houston Texans pass defense has allowed a colossal 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 6th-largest rate in the league. The Texans safeties project as the 6th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

In this game, DeAndre Hopkins is forecasted by the predictive model to land in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.6 targets. DeAndre Hopkins's 74.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) ranks among the league leaders: 97th percentile for WRs.