San Francisco @ Arizona props

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Christian McCaffrey is projected by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile among RBs with 5.8 targets. Christian McCaffrey has been one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 99th percentile. Christian McCaffrey's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 85.1% to 88.8%. This year, the porous Cardinals pass defense has conceded a whopping 86.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-largest rate in football.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual approach. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 62.5% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.0 per game) this year. Marquise Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his team's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among WRs.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to garner 7.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Brandon Aiyuk's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 58.8. With an impressive 4.7 adjusted catches per game (87th percentile) this year, Brandon Aiyuk has been among the leading WRs in the NFL in football. Brandon Aiyuk's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 68.9% to 73.1%.

At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on passing than their usual approach. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 62.5% of their downs: the 3rd-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (39.0 per game) this year. Trey McBride's 4.3 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a remarkable growth in his receiving ability over last year's 3.1 figure.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects George Kittle to garner 5.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among TEs. George Kittle's 49.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 42.2. With a terrific 4.0 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks among the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.