Kansas City @ New England props

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. In this week's game, Rashee Rice is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers with 8.9 targets. The leading projections forecast Rashee Rice to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game in this week's game (24.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.3% in games he has played). With an outstanding 4.6 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Rashee Rice stands among the best pass-catching WRs in the league. This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has yielded a staggering 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 10th-highest rate in football.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. The New England Patriots offense has played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.68 seconds per play. In this game, Ezekiel Elliott is projected by the projections to land in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.7 targets. The projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to be a more important option in his team's air attack in this contest (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.7% in games he has played). Ezekiel Elliott's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season shows an impressive boost in his receiving proficiency over last season's 1.1 mark.

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their typical game plan. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 15.1% Route% this season signifies a significant decline in his passing offense utilization over last season's 26.9% figure. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's 0.7 adjusted catches per game this year reflects a significant decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 1.7 rate. Clyde Edwards-Helaire's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 75.7% to 67.0%.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. The New England Patriots offense has played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.68 seconds per play. The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to garner 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs. Hunter Henry's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 82nd percentile for tight ends. The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Patriots being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. The New England Patriots offense has played at the 5th-quickest tempo in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.68 seconds per play. The leading projections forecast Demario Douglas to earn 7.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 5th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Travis Kelce is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 9.1 targets. Travis Kelce has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.8% this year, which ranks him in the 99th percentile among tight ends. With an excellent 6.7 adjusted catches per game (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the top pass-catching TEs in football. Travis Kelce's 81.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteable gain in his pass-catching talent over last year's 74.6% mark.