MIN -5.5 o40.0
TEN 5.5 u40.0
IND 3.5 o43.5
NYJ -3.5 u43.5
LA -4.5 o43.0
NE 4.5 u43.0
LV 7.5 o44.0
MIA -7.5 u44.0
GB -5.5 o40.5
CHI 5.5 u40.5
JAC 14.0 o47.0
DET -14.0 u47.0
CLE -1.0 o44.0
NO 1.0 u44.0
BAL -3.0 o48.5
PIT 3.0 u48.5
SEA 6.5 o47.0
SF -6.5 u47.0
ATL 2.5 o44.0
DEN -2.5 u44.0
KC 2.5 o46.0
BUF -2.5 u46.0
CIN 1.5 o47.0
LAC -1.5 u47.0
HOU -7.5 o42.0
DAL 7.5 u42.0
Final Nov 14
WAS 18 4.5 o49.5
PHI 26 -4.5 u49.5
Dallas 1st NFC East12-5
Miami 2nd AFC East11-6
FOX

Dallas @ Miami props

Hard Rock Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tyreek Hill Receptions Made Props • Miami

T. Hill
wide receiver WR • Miami
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7
Best Odds
Over
+104

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The model projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 10.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an elite 31.0% Target Rate (98th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the league. With a terrific 7.4 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill stands among the best WRs in the game in the NFL. Tyreek Hill's 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a material improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 70.8% mark.

Tyreek Hill

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The model projects Tyreek Hill to accumulate 10.9 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an elite 31.0% Target Rate (98th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill ranks among the wide receivers with the most usage in the league. With a terrific 7.4 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill stands among the best WRs in the game in the NFL. Tyreek Hill's 75.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a material improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 70.8% mark.

Tony Pollard Receptions Made Props • Dallas

T. Pollard
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.3
Best Odds
Under
-128

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Tony Pollard

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.3
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.3

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Devon Achane Receptions Made Props • Miami

D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
-156
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
3.2
Best Odds
Over
-156
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The model projects Devon Achane to earn 4.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. Devon Achane has been in the 89th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 18.4 mark this year. Devon Achane comes in as one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Devon Achane

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.2
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.2

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The model projects Devon Achane to earn 4.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. Devon Achane has been in the 89th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 18.4 mark this year. Devon Achane comes in as one of the best pass-catching RBs this year, averaging an excellent 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Under
-113

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 7.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.4
Prop:
7.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.4

The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.4
Best Odds
Under
-125

Jake Ferguson's 73.7% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 84.5% rate. The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.4
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.4

Jake Ferguson's 73.7% Adjusted Catch% this year conveys a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 84.5% rate. The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

Durham Smythe Receptions Made Props • Miami

D. Smythe
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.8
Best Odds
Over
-156

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. Durham Smythe has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (71.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (27.1%). Durham Smythe's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a meaningful boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 1.2 rate. Durham Smythe profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, catching an excellent 81.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

Durham Smythe

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.8
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.8

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. Durham Smythe has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (71.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (27.1%). Durham Smythe's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a meaningful boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 1.2 rate. Durham Smythe profiles as one of the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, catching an excellent 81.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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