New England @ Denver props

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. In this week's contest, Ezekiel Elliott is anticipated by the model to place in the 98th percentile among running backs with 5.9 targets. While Ezekiel Elliott has earned 9.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's passing attack this week at 19.0%. Ezekiel Elliott's 2.6 adjusted catches per game this year signifies an impressive gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 1.1 mark. Ezekiel Elliott's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate rising from 72.6% to 87.2%.

A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 6.5-point favorite this week. The predictive model expects the Denver Broncos as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Denver Broncos this year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average). Adam Trautman's 69.4% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a meaningful diminishment in his receiving skills over last season's 80.6% rate.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects Demario Douglas to notch 7.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers. While Demario Douglas has accounted for 16.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of New England's passing attack in this contest at 24.0%. The Denver Broncos linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The New England Patriots defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year. The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to earn 3.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs. The Broncos O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board. Javonte Williams rates as one of the top pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a stellar 2.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile. Javonte Williams's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 77.6% to 84.4%.

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. This year, the shaky Denver Broncos pass defense has yielded a massive 78.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-highest rate in football. The Denver Broncos linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The New England Patriots defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year. Courtland Sutton has run a route on 92.1% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. The Broncos O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board. Courtland Sutton checks in as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an outstanding 4.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 77th percentile. Courtland Sutton's 71.1% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a meaningful improvement in his receiving talent over last year's 59.4% mark.