NE 6.5 o38.0
NYJ -6.5 u38.0
DEN 6.5 o40.5
TB -6.5 u40.5
CHI 1.5 o43.5
IND -1.5 u43.5
HOU -2.5 o46.0
MIN 2.5 u46.0
LAC 1.0 o36.0
PIT -1.0 u36.0
GB 2.0 o38.5
TEN -2.0 u38.5
PHI 2.5 o49.5
NO -2.5 u49.5
NYG 6.5 o39.0
CLE -6.5 u39.0
CAR 5.5 o40.0
LV -5.5 u40.0
MIA 4.5 o41.0
SEA -4.5 u41.0
SF -7.5 o43.5
LA 7.5 u43.5
DET -2.5 o52.0
ARI 2.5 u52.0
BAL -1.0 o47.5
DAL 1.0 u47.5
KC -3.5 o46.5
ATL 3.5 u46.5
JAC 5.5 o45.5
BUF -5.5 u45.5
WAS 8.0 o47.5
CIN -8.0 u47.5
Detroit 1st NFC North12-5
Dallas 1st NFC East12-5
ESPN

Detroit @ Dallas props

AT&T Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Tony Pollard Receptions Made Props • Dallas

T. Pollard
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds
Over
-166

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Tony Pollard's receiving performance has been refined this season, totaling 3.5 adjusted catches compared to a measly 2.4 last season.

Tony Pollard

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Tony Pollard's receiving performance has been refined this season, totaling 3.5 adjusted catches compared to a measly 2.4 last season.

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Made Props • Detroit

J. Gibbs
running back RB • Detroit
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Over
-114
Prop
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.1
Best Odds
Over
-114
Projection Rating

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.1
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.1

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.8 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Made Props • Detroit

A. St. Brown
wide receiver WR • Detroit
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Over
-166
Prop
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Over
-166
Projection Rating

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). With an impressive 7.6 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.4
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.4

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). With an impressive 7.6 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best pass-catching WRs in the league.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Receptions Made
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
-103

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. CeeDee Lamb's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, averaging 7.2 adjusted receptions vs a mere 6.2 last season.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 7.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 7.6
Prop:
7.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
7.6

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. CeeDee Lamb's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, averaging 7.2 adjusted receptions vs a mere 6.2 last season.

Sam LaPorta Receptions Made Props • Detroit

S. LaPorta
tight end TE • Detroit
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-130
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-130
Projection Rating

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). With a fantastic 4.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.

Sam LaPorta

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.7

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Lions are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach. The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a staggering 61.0 per game on average). With a fantastic 4.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta stands among the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-134
Prop
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.7
Best Odds
Over
-134
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Jake Ferguson's 74.6% Route Participation Rate this season marks an impressive boost in his passing offense usage over last season's 18.3% mark.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.7

The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.7 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 60.5 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Jake Ferguson's 74.6% Route Participation Rate this season marks an impressive boost in his passing offense usage over last season's 18.3% mark.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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