New England @ Buffalo props

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the Patriots offense grades out as the 9th-quickest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year. In this week's game, Demario Douglas is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.5 targets. The Bills pass defense has conceded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (70.7%).

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the Patriots offense grades out as the 9th-quickest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year. The model projects Ezekiel Elliott to accumulate 7.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. Ezekiel Elliott's pass-catching performance been refined this season, compiling 3.0 adjusted catches vs a mere 1.1 last season.

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to total 4.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 16.9% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to TEs. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. With an exceptional 4.5 adjusted catches per game (91st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the best pass-game TEs in the league. Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in an outstanding 83.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year. Hunter Henry's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 72.5% to 68.6%. The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 9th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 60.8% of their plays: the 10th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. At a mere 27.03 seconds per snap, the Patriots offense grades out as the 9th-quickest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year. Mike Gesicki's 70.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a material growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 66.3% rate. The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (77.4%) versus tight ends this year (77.4%).

The model projects Stefon Diggs to earn 9.2 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Stefon Diggs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among wideouts. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. With an exceptional 6.4 adjusted catches per game (96th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs stands as one of the best pass-catching WRs in the league. This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has surrendered a colossal 67.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

James Cook's 16.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 10.4. The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. James Cook's play as a receiver has improved this year, averaging 2.7 adjusted catches vs a mere 1.3 last year. James Cook's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.5% to 87.5%. This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 90.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 2nd-biggest rate in football.