Las Vegas @ Indianapolis props

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Michael Pittman is positioned as one of the leading WRs in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 7.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile. This year, the weak Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded a monstrous 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this game, Davante Adams is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 11.6 targets. Davante Adams's 83.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 75.0. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 7th-best in football this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Indianapolis Colts have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. As it relates to pass protection (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the 5th-best in the league this year.

The projections expect the Raiders to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.3% pass rate. As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.57 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Raiders as the 4th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.7 per game) this year. Austin Hooper has gone out for fewer passes this season (38.8% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (60.1%). Austin Hooper's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, notching a mere 1.3 adjusted catches compared to 2.5 last year.