Carolina @ Jacksonville props

The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a whopping 62.7 per game on average). The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year. The predictive model expects Adam Thielen to total 8.3 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile among wideouts. Adam Thielen's 6.4 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a remarkable progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 4.1 mark.

The Jaguars may pass less in this game (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB C.J. Beathard. The Jaguars rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 65.5% pass rate. With regard to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.82 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Calvin Ridley has run a route on 92.9% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among WRs. The model projects Calvin Ridley to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.

The Jaguars may pass less in this game (and call more carries) because they be rolling with backup QB C.J. Beathard. The Jaguars rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 65.5% pass rate. With regard to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.82 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. The leading projections forecast Evan Engram to accumulate 8.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among TEs. Evan Engram's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, notching 6.5 adjusted receptions compared to just 4.3 last season.

The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Carolina Panthers this year (a whopping 62.7 per game on average). The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year. Chuba Hubbard's 42.8% Route Participation Rate this year shows a significant improvement in his passing offense usage over last year's 24.7% rate. Chuba Hubbard's pass-catching performance gotten better this year, accumulating 2.2 adjusted catches vs just 1.2 last year.