Arizona @ Philadelphia props

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.2 per game) this year.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.2 per game) this year. Dallas Goedert's 73.5% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a meaningful reduction in his pass-catching ability over last year's 80.2% mark. The Cardinals pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.5%) vs. tight ends this year (70.5%).

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a massive -12.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: most in the league. The projections expect James Conner to total 3.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 77th percentile among running backs.

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a massive -12.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game versus the Eagles defense this year: most in the league. The predictive model expects Greg Dortch to be much more involved in his team's air attack in this game (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (8.0% in games he has played). The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks rank as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Eagles are projected by our trusted projection set to run 65.7 total plays in this contest: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 61.2 plays per game. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the best in football this year. With a terrific 2.5 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift ranks among the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL. D'Andre Swift's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 75.9% to 83.0%.