Pittsburgh @ Seattle props

The model projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.7% pass rate. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Tyler Lockett to earn 7.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wideouts. Tyler Lockett has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.5% this year, which places him in the 86th percentile among WRs. Tyler Lockett ranks as one of the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 5.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.

A running game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.0 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week. The Seahawks have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.5 plays per game. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.7 per game) this year. Noah Fant's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 78.4% to 74.3%.

The Steelers will be rolling with backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects Diontae Johnson to total 7.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts. Diontae Johnson ranks in the 91st percentile among WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 67.9 mark this year.