Los Angeles @ Denver props

The Chargers may rely on the pass game less in this game (and call more carries) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Easton Stick. The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. With a 64.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL has been the Los Angeles Chargers. With a remarkable 3.5 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Gerald Everett rates as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league. This year, the weak Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered a massive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

The projections expect the Chargers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Austin Ekeler's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 27.0. Austin Ekeler's 3.5 adjusted catches per game this season shows an impressive regression in his receiving ability over last season's 6.3 figure. Austin Ekeler's 70.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 86.6% figure.

The Broncos may throw the ball less this week (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Jarrett Stidham. The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year. The model projects Jerry Jeudy to accrue 6.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers. Jerry Jeudy's 52.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in football: 78th percentile for wideouts. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Broncos profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.