Cincinnati @ Kansas City props

The Bengals may rely on the pass game less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Jake Browning. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Ja'Marr Chase is projected by the model to land in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.1 targets. The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 4th-worst safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. In this game, Travis Kelce is predicted by the predictive model to land in the 97th percentile when it comes to TEs with 8.4 targets. Travis Kelce ranks in the 99th percentile among TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with an impressive 51.4 figure this year. With an exceptional 6.5 adjusted receptions per game (100th percentile) this year, Travis Kelce ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in the league. The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.9%) vs. tight ends this year (82.9%).

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. This week, Isiah Pacheco is anticipated by the model to rank in the 88th percentile among running backs with 4.7 targets. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the league.

The Bengals may rely on the pass game less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup quarterback Jake Browning. At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are giant underdogs this week, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This week, Joe Mixon is expected by the projection model to slot into the 80th percentile among running backs with 3.6 targets. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.4%) versus RBs this year (87.4%).