DET -7.5 o49.5
IND 7.5 u49.5
TEN 9.0 o41.0
HOU -9.0 u41.0
NE 7.5 o46.5
MIA -7.5 u46.5
MIN -3.5 o39.0
CHI 3.5 u39.0
KC -11.0 o43.0
CAR 11.0 u43.0
TB -5.5 o41.5
NYG 5.5 u41.5
DAL 10.5 o45.0
WAS -10.5 u45.0
DEN -6.0 o40.5
LV 6.0 u40.5
SF 2.5 o47.0
GB -2.5 u47.0
ARI 1.0 o48.0
SEA -1.0 u48.0
PHI -3.0 o49.5
LA 3.0 u49.5
BAL -3.0 o51.0
LAC 3.0 u51.0
Final Nov 21
PIT 19 -3.5 o37.0
CLE 24 3.5 u37.0
Houston 1st AFC South10-7
Indianapolis 3rd AFC South9-8
ESPN, ABC

Houston @ Indianapolis props

Lucas Oil Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Michael Pittman Jr. Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

M. Pittman Jr.
wide receiver WR • Indianapolis
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
8.3
Best Odds
Over
-138
Prop
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection
8.3
Best Odds
Over
-138
Projection Rating

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. In this week's contest, Michael Pittman is projected by our trusted projection set to place in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 12.1 targets. With a stellar 6.9 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 8.3
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
8.3

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. In this week's contest, Michael Pittman is projected by our trusted projection set to place in the 99th percentile among wideouts with 12.1 targets. With a stellar 6.9 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) this year, Michael Pittman rates as one of the top WRs in the NFL in football.

Nico Collins Receptions Made Props • Houston

N. Collins
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.5
Best Odds
Over
-132

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Nico Collins's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 5.0 adjusted receptions vs just 3.7 last season.

Nico Collins

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.5
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.5

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Nico Collins's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, accumulating 5.0 adjusted receptions vs just 3.7 last season.

Kylen Granson Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

K. Granson
tight end TE • Indianapolis
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.9
Best Odds
Over
-103

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. The predictive model expects Kylen Granson to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs. This year, the porous Houston Texans pass defense has conceded a staggering 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Kylen Granson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.9
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.9

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. The predictive model expects Kylen Granson to earn 4.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs. This year, the porous Houston Texans pass defense has conceded a staggering 77.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 9th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Made Props • Indianapolis

J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.5
Best Odds
Over
+136

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 3.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs. The Colts O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.5
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.5

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to accumulate 3.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs. The Colts O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Dalton Schultz Receptions Made Props • Houston

D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.9
Best Odds
Over
-110

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Dalton Schultz profiles as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.9
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.9

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Dalton Schultz profiles as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a fantastic 3.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.

Devin Singletary Receptions Made Props • Houston

D. Singletary
running back RB • Houston
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.7
Best Odds
Over
+102
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
2.7
Best Odds
Over
+102
Projection Rating

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Devin Singletary to garner 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Devin Singletary

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.7
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.7

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.6% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are anticipated by the projections to call 69.4 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a colossal 60.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Devin Singletary to garner 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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