New York @ New England props

The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average). The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.7 per game) this year.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Trevor Siemian. The projections expect Breece Hall to garner 6.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile among running backs. While Breece Hall has received 16.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New York's passing attack in this contest at 22.0%. Breece Hall's receiving skills have gotten a boost this year, averaging 4.7 adjusted receptions vs a mere 2.7 last year. This year, the shaky New England Patriots pass defense has given up a staggering 87.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-worst rate in football.

The projections expect the Patriots to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Patriots this year (a mere 56.2 per game on average). The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.7 per game) this year.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.7% of their chances: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call just 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest among all teams this week. When talking about pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the New York Jets grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year. With a subpar 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate (21st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among wideouts.

The projections expect Ezekiel Elliott to garner 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs. While Ezekiel Elliott has earned 11.0% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of New England's pass game this week at 17.0%. Ezekiel Elliott's 2.9 adjusted catches per game this year conveys a substantial gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 1.1 rate. Ezekiel Elliott's sure-handedness have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.6% to 84.5%.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup quarterback Trevor Siemian. The model projects Tyler Conklin to garner 4.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends. Tyler Conklin slots into the 87th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) with an impressive 34.4 mark this year. With an exceptional 3.7 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) this year, Tyler Conklin places among the best tight ends in the pass game in the NFL. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New England's unit has been awful this year, ranking as the 6th-worst in the NFL.