LIVE End Dec 28
LAC 7 -6.0 o41.5
NE 0 6.0 u41.5
DEN 3.5 o50.0
CIN -3.5 u50.0
ARI 6.5 o47.5
LA -6.5 u47.5
CAR 8.5 o48.0
TB -8.5 u48.0
IND -8.5 o40.0
NYG 8.5 u40.0
NYJ 10.0 o45.5
BUF -10.0 u45.5
TEN 1.0 o39.0
JAC -1.0 u39.0
DAL 7.5 o38.0
PHI -7.5 u38.0
LV -1.0 o37.5
NO 1.0 u37.5
MIA -4.5 o35.0
CLE 4.5 u35.0
GB 1.0 o48.0
MIN -1.0 u48.0
ATL 3.5 o47.0
WAS -3.5 u47.0
DET -3.5 o50.5
SF 3.5 u50.5
Final Dec 25
KC 29 -1.5 o46.0
PIT 10 1.5 u46.0
Final Dec 25
BAL 31 -6.5 o47.5
HOU 2 6.5 u47.5
Final Dec 26
SEA 6 -4.0 o42.0
CHI 3 4.0 u42.0
Green Bay 2nd NFC North9-8
Dallas 1st NFC East12-5
FOX

Green Bay @ Dallas props

AT&T Stadium

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.1
Best Odds
Over
+108

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 94th percentile among TEs with 6.9 targets.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.1
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.1

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Jake Ferguson is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 94th percentile among TEs with 6.9 targets.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
7.5
Receptions Made
Projection
9.3
Best Odds
Over
-146

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects CeeDee Lamb to earn 12.2 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 7.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 9.3
Prop:
7.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
9.3

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The model projects CeeDee Lamb to earn 12.2 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.

Tony Pollard Receptions Made Props • Dallas

T. Pollard
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.4
Best Odds
Over
-135

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Tony Pollard is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 88th percentile among RBs with 4.2 targets.

Tony Pollard

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.4
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.4

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.4% pass rate. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 129.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.4 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Tony Pollard is predicted by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 88th percentile among RBs with 4.2 targets.

Aaron Jones Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

A. Jones
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.9
Best Odds
Under
-158

The projections expect the Packers to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a lowly 56.8 per game on average).

Aaron Jones

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.9
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.9

The projections expect the Packers to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a lowly 56.8 per game on average).

Jayden Reed Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

J. Reed
wide receiver WR • Green Bay
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.4
Best Odds
Under
-120

The projections expect the Packers to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a lowly 56.8 per game on average).

Jayden Reed

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.4
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.4

The projections expect the Packers to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Green Bay Packers this year (a lowly 56.8 per game on average).

Tucker Kraft Receptions Made Props • Green Bay

T. Kraft
tight end TE • Green Bay
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.6
Best Odds
Over
-136

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Packers are huge underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard approach. Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

Tucker Kraft

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.6
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.6

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Packers are huge underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on throwing than their standard approach. Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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