Tampa Bay @ Detroit props

The model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.7 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-most in the league. With an exceptional 4.9 adjusted catches per game (95th percentile) this year, Sam LaPorta places as one of the top pass-game tight ends in the league.

This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Rachaad White has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (69.3% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (32.7%). Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to total 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to running backs. Rachaad White has been one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a fantastic 3.6 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

This game's line suggests a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6.5 points. Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 57.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Jahmyr Gibbs is positioned as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, catching a mere 74.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 23rd percentile.

This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Buccaneers, who are -6.5-point underdogs. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. With an impressive 87.5% Route Participation% (81st percentile) this year, Chris Godwin places as one of the wide receivers with the highest volume in the NFL. The projections expect Chris Godwin to accrue 8.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs. The Lions safeties profile as the worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

The model projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Detroit Lions have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.7 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. Opposing QBs have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Amon-Ra St. Brown profiles as one of the leading wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a remarkable 7.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected by the projections to call just 63.3 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week. The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. TEs this year (67.9%).