Green Bay @ Philadelphia props

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Packers are expected by the projections to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-lowest number among all teams this week. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Green Bay Packers last year (a mere 56.8 per game on average). With a poor 69.0% Adjusted Completion% (5th percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs ranks among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL among RBs. When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been phenomenal last year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense last year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The leading projections forecast Luke Musgrave to garner 4.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends. Luke Musgrave's 26.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the league: 77th percentile for TEs. With a fantastic 3.6 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) last year, Luke Musgrave has been among the best TEs in the pass game in football.

Right now, the quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles. The model projects A.J. Brown to accumulate 9.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among WRs. A.J. Brown has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 31.4% last year, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles grades out as the best in football last year. With an impressive 6.2 adjusted receptions per game (95th percentile) last year, A.J. Brown stands as one of the top WRs in the NFL in the league.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Packers, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 31.8 per game) last year. The Packers pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.3%) versus TEs last year (70.3%). As it relates to defensive ends pass-rushing, Green Bay's DE corps has been great last year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

The leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense last year: 2nd-most in the NFL. With an impressive 4.3 adjusted catches per game (79th percentile) last year, Jayden Reed places as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in football. Jayden Reed ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football, catching a stellar 71.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 80th percentile among wide receivers. The Philadelphia cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football last year in pass coverage.

Right now, the quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Eagles. In this contest, Saquon Barkley is predicted by the projections to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.9 targets. Saquon Barkley rates in the 98th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) with a massive 26.4 figure last year. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles grades out as the best in football last year. Saquon Barkley checks in as one of the best pass-game RBs last year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.