Dallas @ Cleveland props

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. David Njoku is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing just 68.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 17th percentile. The Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.3%) versus TEs last year (70.3%).

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Last year, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a meager 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.1%) to WRs last year (59.1%). The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.2%) vs. wideouts last year (54.2%). The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.

The model projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 134.7 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game. Ezekiel Elliott has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.6% last year, which puts him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. Ezekiel Elliott comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.