New England @ Jacksonville props

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 51.1% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on pace, at 28.79 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Patriots as the 10th-most sluggish in football (adjusted for context) at the present time. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week. The Jaguars have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league. This week, Rhamondre Stevenson is anticipated by the predictive model to slot into the 85th percentile among running backs with 3.4 targets. The Jaguars pass defense has been torched for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (89.7%) to running backs this year (89.7%). When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, profiling as the worst in the league.

The model projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate. In this week's game, Evan Engram is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 98th percentile among tight ends with 7.5 targets. With a high 23.9% Target Share (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Evan Engram places among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The Jaguars O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board. Evan Engram comes in as one of the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 6.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are anticipated by the projection model to call just 62.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week. The Jaguars have called the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 54.2 plays per game. Tank Bigsby's 0.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 7th percentile for RBs. Tank Bigsby ranks as one of the bottom RB receiving threats this year, averaging a mere 0.2 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 2nd percentile among RBs.

This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Patriots, who are -6.5-point underdogs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 6th-most in the league. The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to total 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends. Hunter Henry's 42.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 33.2. With an impressive 3.2 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.